2014年6月13日 星期五

錢進海外置產~2014年第一季度:全球房價熱潮持續

由環球房地產指南    2014年6月11日 by GLOBAL PROPERTY GUIDE

全球房價熱潮不斷加快,大多數國家回到危機前的水平。房子的價格都在上漲,很多比不了更多的國家,勢頭趨勢是強勁向上。事實上,許多住房市場現在被認為估值過高。有幾個國家現在實行的住房市場的降溫措施,以避免過去的重演。


亞洲房地產市場喜憂參半,但一些有實力的增長

十一個亞洲市場有數字可查八看年內的房價上升至2014年第一季度。八表現較好年內至2014年第一季度比去年四更糟。大減速已在香港和新加坡。
台灣我們的全球房價調查的第三個表現最佳。房價年內至2014年第一季度大幅上升11.28%,略高於上年同期10.17%。按季度計算,房價在2014年第一季度增加了1.66%。飛漲的房價已經成為總統馬英九,計劃推行與財產和土地稅相結合,努力冷卻房地產市場的一個重大問題。
住宅建築活動繼續飆升。在2014年3月,為房屋建築許可證數量比去年同期猛增了21%,達到9,997輛,根據內政部此外,住宅建築許可的總樓面面積亦上升7.7%至約1830000平方米(平方米),較上年同期。
在2014年第一季度從去年同期,自2012年第四季度最強的3.04%台灣經濟擴張,根據行政院主計處統計總局(行政院主計處)。實際GDP增長預計今年為3.1%,從2013年2.1%,2012年1.5%,2011年4.2%。
在  菲律賓  是我們的全球房價調查的第四個表現最佳。3間臥室的公寓單位在Makati CBD的平均價格從去年同期去年同期上升8.95%,2014年第一季度,從2.32%的年增長大幅改善。然而每季,房價由2014年第一季度0.12%略有下降。
菲律賓經濟較上年同期增長了5.7%,在2014年第一季度,最慢的步伐,兩年,但在亞洲的第三個增長最強勁的基礎上,從數字  國家統計協調委員會(國家統計協調委員會)。經濟預計,2015年,今年平均6.5%擴大,為7.2%,2013年壯觀的增長和6.8%,2012年以後,根據國際貨幣基金組織。
中國的房地產市場是修修補補。在中國上海,二手住宅價格指數年內至2014年第一季度,從1.21%,較去年同期輕微增長顯著改善急升8.35%。
然而每季,房價在上海期間的最新季度下降了0.49%。需求下降在全國范圍,也。對於前四個月2014年售出房屋的總價值較去年同期下降9.9%,至CNY1.53萬億(約合248十億),根據  國家統計局,主要是由於中國政府的競選馴服中國的債務熱潮。
中國經濟較上年同期增長7.4%,2014年第一季度,​​好於市場預期,但是從7.7%增長出現在上一季度略有下降。
一些亞洲的房地產市場看到了簡樸的房子漲價。   在  泰國,樓價年內上漲了3.64%,至2014年第一季度,較上年同期增長了去年1.49%。同樣,在東京,  日本,房價同比上一年,在2014年第一季度上升了3.32%,略好從3.3%上一年度的年度增長。在最新的季度住宅價格上升0.8%,較上一季度在泰國和日本東京2.91%。
馬來西亞的房價上漲了4.35%,比去年同期在2014年第一季度,從8.96%,去年同期的年增長速度和最慢的步伐急劇放緩自2010年第一季度,房價上升0.73%較上季度2014年第一季度,馬來西亞經濟預計一個強大的5.2%,今年擴大,從5.7%的平均實際GDP增長率2010年至2013年。
印尼的房地產市場也大幅放緩,從5年的低迷,2012年第四季度恢復後。住宅物業價格在全國14個最大的城市,在2014年第一季度僅增長1.78%,比去年同期,從2013年第4季2.93%,第3季4.54%,第2季6.06%,而在第一季度5.45%的年增幅下降。在2014年第一季度,房價較上季上升了1.47%。
韓國,房價年內至2014年第一季度僅僅增加了0.02%,但是,這是一個轉機,從去年同期去年同期下降3.44%。較上一季度,房價在2014年第一季度下降了0.58%。
有住宅價格下跌,在亞洲三個地方:
香港的房價目前下降,主要是由於政府的努力,以降溫房地產市場。住宅物業價格在香港年內至2014年第一季度下降了2.27%,與20.44%,2013年第一季度壯觀的年均增長率形成鮮明對比。香港看到了1.24%,較上一季度房價下跌在2014年第一季度。
需求也在暴跌。在2014年第一季度,在香港出售的房屋總數較去年同期大幅下跌33.7%,至10,788只的單位,根據差餉物業估價署(RVD) 
香港經濟預計增長3.7%,今年擴大,從2013年2.9%,2012年1.6%,2011年為4.8%,根據國際貨幣基金組織。
新加坡的房地產市場繼續下滑,在一片溫和的經濟增長。房價年內至2014年第一季度下降了1.68%,之後在2013年第四季度,每年減幅為0.9%,與去年同期的2.01%,在第3季和第2季的2.47%上升。在2014年第一季度,房價較上季下降了1.43%。
一手住宅銷售量同比去年大幅下跌67%至1,791個單位在2014年第一季度,2008年以來的最低水平,根據市區重建局轉售和轉售私宅的數量也大幅下跌57.9%至1,010剛好單位在同一時期,根據第一太平戴維斯新加坡“注意遊戲規則,因為銷量依然不溫不火,”第一太平戴維斯研究的Alan昌說。
在2014年第一季度從去年同期,類似國家的經濟增長速度與上季4.9%的新加坡經濟擴張。實際GDP增長預計為2014年約3.6%,4.1%,2013年,2012年為1.9%,並在2011年的6%,根據國際貨幣基金組織。
越南的住宅物業價格由0.38%,比去年同期在2014年第一季度略有下降,但是這是從每年下降2.91%,可見去年同期有所改善,自2010年第二季度,按季度計算,房子最低下降價格在最近一個季度增加了1.25%。越南經濟預計將在2015年今年增長5.6%,另有5.7%。

Asian housing markets mixed, but some strong growth

Eight of the eleven Asian markets for which figures are available saw their house prices rise during the year to Q1 2014. Eight performed better during the year to Q1 2014 than the previous year, four worse. The big slowdowns have been in Hong Kong and Singapore.
Taiwan is the third best performer in our global house price survey. House prices soared by 11.28% during the year to Q1 2014, slightly up from 10.17% the previous year. On a quarterly basis, house prices increased by 1.66% in Q1 2014.
Skyrocketing house prices have become a major issue for President Ma Ying-jeou, who plans to collect taxes on property and land combined, in an effort to cool the housing market.
Residential construction activity continues to surge. In March 2014, the number of construction licenses for houses soared by 21% from a year earlier, to reach 9,997 units, according to the Ministry of Interior. Moreover, the total floor area of residential construction permits also rose by 7.7% to about 1.83 million square metres (sq. m.) over the same period.
The Taiwanese economy expanded by 3.04% in Q1 2014 from a year earlier, the strongest since Q4 2012, according to the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). Real GDP growth is expected at 3.1% this year, from 2.1% in 2013, 1.5% in 2012, and 4.2% in 2011.
The Philippines is the fourth best performer in our global house price survey. The average price of 3-bedroom condominium units in Makati CBD surged by 8.95% in Q1 2014 from a year earlier, a sharp improvement from the annual growth of 2.32% during the same period last year. However on a quarterly basis, house prices dropped slightly by 0.12% in Q1 2014.
The Philippine economy grew by 5.7% in Q1 2014 from a year earlier, the slowest pace in two years but the third strongest growth in Asia, based on figures from the the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB). The economy is expected to expand by an average of 6.5% this year and in 2015, after spectacular growth of 7.2% in 2013 and 6.8% in 2012, according to the IMF.
China's housing market is patchy. In Shanghai, China, the price index of second-hand residential buildings surged by 8.35% during the year to Q1 2014, a remarkable improvement from the meagre growth of 1.21% over the same period last year.
However on a quarterly basis, house prices in Shanghai fell by 0.49% during the latest quarter. Demand is falling nationwide, also. The total value of homes sold for the first four months of 2014 dropped 9.9% to CNY1.53 trillion (US$248 billion) from the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, mainly due to the Chinese government's campaign to tame China's debt boom.
The Chinese economy grew by 7.4% in Q1 2014 from a year earlier, better than market expectations but slightly down from the 7.7% growth seen in the previous quarter.
Several Asian housing markets saw modest house price increases.  In Thailand, property prices rose by 3.64% during the year to Q1 2014, up from a year-on-year increase of 1.49% in the previous year. Likewise, in Tokyo, Japan, house prices rose by 3.32% year-on-year in Q1 2014, slightly better from an annual rise of 3.3% in the previous year. During the latest quarter house prices increased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Thailand and by 2.91% in Tokyo, Japan.
Malaysia's house prices rose by 4.35% year-on-year in Q1 2014, slowing sharply from an annual growth rate of 8.96% in the same period last year and the slowest pace since Q1 2010. House prices increased 0.73% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2014. The Malaysian economy is expected to expand by a robust 5.2% this year, from an average real GDP growth rate of 5.7% from 2010 to 2013.
Indonesia's housing market also slowed sharply, after recovering in Q4 2012 from a 5-year slump. Residential property prices in the country's 14 largest cities rose by just 1.78% year-on-year in Q1 2014, down from annual increases of 2.93% in Q4 2013, 4.54% in Q3, 6.06% in Q2, and 5.45% in Q1. In Q1 2014, house prices increased by 1.47% from the previous quarter.
In South Korea, house prices increased by a meagre 0.02% during the year to Q1 2014. However, this is a turnaround from the year-on-year drop of 3.44% in the same period last year. Quarter-on-quarter, house prices fell by 0.58% in Q1 2014.
There were residential price falls in three places in Asia:
Hong Kong's house prices are now falling, mainly due to government efforts to cool down the housing market. Residential property prices in Hong Kong dropped 2.27% during the year to Q1 2014, in sharp contrast with the spectacular annual growth of 20.44% in Q1 2013. Hong Kong saw a house price drop of 1.24% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2014.
Demand is also plunging. In Q1 2014, the total number of homes sold in HK plummeted by 33.7% from a year earlier, to just 10,788 units, according to the Ratings and Valuation Department (RVD).
Hong Kong's economy is projected to expand by 3.7% this year, up from 2.9% in 2013, 1.6% in 2012, and 4.8% in 2011, according to the IMF.
Singapore's housing market continues to decline, amidst modest economic growth. House prices dropped 1.68% during the year to Q1 2014, after an annual drop of 0.9% in Q4 2013, and year-on-year rises of 2.01% in Q3 and 2.47% in Q2. In Q1 2014, house prices fell by 1.43% from the previous quarter.
Primary residential sales volumes plummeted by 67% year-on-year to 1,791 units in Q1 2014, the lowest level since 2008, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority. The number of resale and sub-sale private homes also plunged by 57.9% to just 1,010 units over the same period, according toSavills Singapore. "Caution rules the game, as sales volumes remain tepid," said Alan Cheong of Savills Research.
The Singaporean economy expanded by 4.9% in Q1 2014 from a year earlier, similar to the country's growth rate in the previous quarter. Real GDP growth is projected at about 3.6% in 2014, from 4.1% in 2013, 1.9% in 2012, and 6% in 2011, according to the IMF.
Vietnam's residential property prices fell slightly by 0.38% year-on-year in Q1 2014, but this was an improvement from the annual drop of 2.91% seen a year ago and the lowest decline since Q2 2010. On a quarterly basis, house prices increased by 1.25% during the latest quarter. The Vietnamese economy is projected to grow 5.6% this year and another 5.7% in 2015.